Update Phillips curve paper & CV

content/design/d4.md

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 ---
-title: "MATLAB Script to Produce Scientific Figures" 
-date: 2023-09-26
+title: "Minimalist MATLAB Template for Scientific Figures" 
+date: 2024-10-27
 url: /d4/
 author: "Pascal Michaillat"
-description: "This script produces a set of scientific figures with MATLAB. The figures adhere to best practices for the visual display of quantitative information."
-summary: "This script produces a set of scientific figures with MATLAB. The figures adhere to best practices for the visual display of quantitative information."
+description: "This template produces a set of scientific figures with MATLAB. The figures adhere to best practices for the visual display of quantitative information."
+summary: "This template produces a set of scientific figures with MATLAB. The figures adhere to best practices for the visual display of quantitative information."
 cover:
     image: "/d4s.png"
-    alt: "Figure produced with script"
+    alt: "Figure produced with template"
     relative: false
 editPost:
     URL: "https://github.com/pmichaillat/matlab-figures"
@@ -17,14 +17,14 @@ disableAnchoredHeadings: false
 
 ---
 
-The script produces basic scientific figures using [MATLAB](hhttps://matlab.mathworks.com). The figures adhere to best practices for the visual display of quantitative information—with the aim to convey quantitative information effectively on screen and in print.
+The template produces basic scientific figures using [MATLAB](hhttps://matlab.mathworks.com). The figures adhere to best practices for the visual display of quantitative information—with the aim to convey quantitative information effectively on screen and in print.
 
 ---
 
 ## View
 
-+ [MATLAB script to produce figures](https://github.com/pmichaillat/matlab-figures)
-+ [Figures produced by the script](/d4.pdf)
++ [MATLAB template for scientific figures](https://github.com/pmichaillat/matlab-figures)
++ [Figures produced by the template](/d4.pdf)
 
 ---
 
@@ -33,36 +33,36 @@ The script produces basic scientific figures using [MATLAB](hhttps://matlab.math
 + The font on the axes and annotations is Helvetica.
 + Font sizes and line thicknesses are set for comfortable reading once the figures are inserted [in pairs in a paper](/d2/).
 + A collections of color palettes is provided, both for qualitative displays and sequential displays. 
-+ The script produces a collection of basic figures with different plot types and different features:
++ The template produces a collection of basic figures with different plot types and different features:
     * Time series plots: single or multiple series, with or without period areas, with or without above-below areas
     * Scatter plots: transparent or not, connected or not, with or without above-below areas
 + Figure dimensions are set to minimize the white space around the content.
 + The figure aspect ratio is 4:3 so the figure can easily be annotated with a presentation software.
-+ On a Mac, the figures can easily be annotated with Keynote. This procedure is more user friendly, and more flexible, than annotating the figures directly in MATLAB. The Keynote file `figures.key` illustrates how to annotate the figures produced by the script.
++ On a Mac, the figures can easily be annotated with Keynote. This procedure is more user friendly, and more flexible, than annotating the figures directly in MATLAB. The Keynote file `figures.key` illustrates how to annotate the figures produced by the template.
 
 --- 
 
 ## General principles
 
-The default figures produced by MATLAB do not look particularly good, especially once they are inserted in a paper or presentation.  The lines are too thin, the font size is too small, the color palette has been overused, and so on. As a result, they do not convey information as effectively as they could.
+The default figures produced by MATLAB do not look particularly good, especially once they are inserted in papers or presentations.  The lines are too thin, the font size is too small, the color palette has been overused, and so on. As a result, they do not convey information as effectively as they could.
 
-The goal of this script is to produce figures that can be easily inserted into papers and presentations and that convey information effectively. The script attempts to follow the data visualization best practices developed by [Edward Tufte](https://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/) in [*The Visual Display of Quantitative Information*](https://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/books_vdqi). This book is the classic reference on statistical graphics, charts, and tables. Using many examples, it explains how to display data for precise, effective, and quick analysis. One of the main message of the book is to maximize the data-ink ratio—that is, to reduce as much as possible ink that does not convey information.
+The goal of this template is to produce figures that can be easily inserted into papers and presentations and that convey information effectively. The template attempts to follow the data visualization best practices developed by [Edward Tufte](https://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/) in [*The Visual Display of Quantitative Information*](https://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/books_vdqi). This book is the classic reference on statistical graphics, charts, and tables. Using many examples, it explains how to display data for precise, effective, and quick analysis. One of the main message of the book is to maximize the data-ink ratio—that is, to minimize as much as possible ink that does not convey information.
 
 --- 
 
 ## Font type
 
 Fonts matter in figures, just as in papers and presentations. The font determines the appearance and readability of the figure. To improve readability, sans-serif font are recommended for the text in figures.  The simplified letter forms of sans-serif fonts are not encumbered by serifs, which improves the readability of characters at very small sizes. The clean and simple lines of sans-serif fonts also enhance the figure's visual presentation.
 
-The script uses Helvetica, which is a [classic, quality](https://practicaltypography.com/helvetica-and-arial-alternatives.html) font and is supported by MATLAB both for displaying on screen and for printing (most fonts are not). An advantage of Helvetica is that it is legible at all sizes, even small. This is useful for figures, in which some annotations must be small to fit in the space available.[^1] 
+The template uses Helvetica, which is a [classic, quality](https://practicaltypography.com/helvetica-and-arial-alternatives.html) font and is supported by MATLAB both for displaying on screen and for printing (most fonts are not). An advantage of Helvetica is that it is legible at all sizes, even small. This is useful for figures, in which some annotations must be small to fit in the space available.[^1] 
 
 [^1]: In fact, Helvetica is recommended by many science publishers, including [Nature](https://www.nature.com/documents/nature-final-artwork.pdf) and [Springer](https://www.springer.com/gp/authors-editors/journal-author/journal-author-helpdesk/manuscript-preparation/1260).
 
 ---
 
 ## Font size
 
-Beside the typeface, another key choice is the font size used in the figures. The script picks a size so the text in the figure is about the same size as footnote text once the figure is inserted in the paper (about 9pt). This way the figure will be easily readable (smaller text would be difficult to read). Of course, lettering should be consistently sized throughout the figure. Variance of font size within an illustration should be minimal. As a rule of thumb, text should appear no smaller than 7pt at intended size; 6pt is the minimum for superscript and subscript characters.
+Beside the typeface, another key choice is the font size used in the figures. The template picks a size so the text in the figure is about the same size as footnote text once the figure is inserted in the paper (about 9pt). This way the figure will be easily readable (smaller text would be difficult to read). Of course, lettering should be consistently sized throughout the figure. Variance of font size within an illustration should be minimal. As a rule of thumb, text should appear no smaller than 7pt at intended size; 6pt is the minimum for superscript and subscript characters.
 
 ---
 
@@ -86,7 +86,7 @@ Line thicknesses are set for comfortable reading once the figures are inserted [
 
 ## Plot types
 
-The script produces a collection of figures with different plot types and different features.
+The template produces a collection of figures with different plot types and different features.
 
 It produces a range of time series plots: single or multiple series, with or without period areas, with or without above-below areas.
 
@@ -97,14 +97,14 @@ It also produces a range of scatter plots: transparent or not, connected or not,
 
 ## Annotations
 
-On a Mac, the figures can easily be annotated with Keynote. This procedure is more user friendly, and more flexible, than annotating the figures directly in MATLAB. The Keynote file `figures.key` illustrates how to annotate the figures produced by the script.
+On a Mac, the figures can easily be annotated with Keynote. This procedure is more user friendly, and more flexible, than annotating the figures directly in MATLAB. The Keynote file `figures.key` illustrates how to annotate the figures produced by the template.
 
 First, create a Keynote presentation. Insert each figure as a slide background. Annotate the slide as desired. Finally, save the resulting presentation as PDF (such as `figures.pdf`). With this method, all the figures have the exact same size, and each figure can be inserted individually into a LaTeX document, using `\includegraphics[scale=0.2,page=X]{figures.pdf}` to insert page X of the collection of figures called `figures.pdf`.
 
 ---
 
 ## Scaling for different figure sizes
 
-The script is tailored for the common case in which the figures are inserted [in pairs in an academic paper](/d2/). The scaling factor in LaTeX to insert two figures side by side is 0.2. The script is designed so that the PDF pages created by MATLAB, and annotated through Keynote, have readable font and line sizes once they are scaled by a factor of 0.2. For instance to obtain 8pt text and 1pt lines, we need 8/0.2 = 40pt text and 1/0.2 = 5pt lines in Keynote. This is what the current script produces.
+The template is tailored for the common case in which the figures are inserted [in pairs in an academic paper](/d2/). The scaling factor in LaTeX to insert two figures side by side is 0.2. The template is designed so that the PDF pages created by MATLAB, and annotated through Keynote, have readable font and line sizes once they are scaled by a factor of 0.2. For instance to obtain 8pt text and 1pt lines, we need 8/0.2 = 40pt text and 1/0.2 = 5pt lines in Keynote. This is what the current template produces.
 
-To insert bigger figures into LaTeX, the script should be adjusted so that the final figures maintain the same text and line sizes as the current figures. For instance to insert twice-larger figures, the scaling factor in LaTeX can be increased to 0.4. Then all the font, line, and marker sizes should be divided by two in the script so all text, markers, and lines maintain a consistent size across figures, irrespective of the figure size.
+To insert bigger figures into LaTeX, the template should be adjusted so that the final figures maintain the same text and line sizes as the current figures. For instance to insert twice-larger figures, the scaling factor in LaTeX can be increased to 0.4. Then all the font, line, and marker sizes should be divided by two in the template so all text, markers, and lines maintain a consistent size across figures, irrespective of the figure size.

content/papers/13.md

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ aliases:
     - /tags/vacancies/
     - /tags/efficiency/
     - /tags/inefficiency/
-tags: ["Beveridge curve", "business cycles", "efficient unemployment rate", "FERU", "full employment", "job vacancies", "labor-force participation", "labor-market tightness", "monetary policy", "unemployment gap"]
+tags: ["Beveridge curve", "business cycles", "efficient unemployment rate", "FERU", "full employment", "job vacancies", "labor-force participation", "monetary policy", "tightness gap", "unemployment gap"]
 author: ["Pascal Michaillat","Emmanuel Saez"]
 description: "This paper argues that in the United States the full-employment rate of unemployment is the geometric average of the unemployment and vacancy rates." 
 summary: "This paper argues that in the United States the full-employment rate of unemployment (FERU) is the geometric average of the unemployment and vacancy rates. Between 1930 and 2024, the FERU averages 4.1% and is very stable."

content/papers/14.md

@@ -1,8 +1,9 @@
 ---
 title: "Modeling Migration-Induced Unemployment" 
 date: 2024-10-03
+lastmod: 2024-10-25
 url: /14/
-tags: ["Borjas-Card controversy", "business cycles", "immigration policy", "job rationing", "job stealing", "matching model", "migration", "state dependence", "unemployment", "wage rigidity"]
+tags: ["Borjas-Card controversy", "business cycles", "immigration policy", "job rationing", "job stealing", "matching model", "politics", "state dependence", "unemployment", "wage rigidity"]
 author: ["Pascal Michaillat"]
 description: "This paper explains why a wave of in-migration reduces the employment rate of local workers, and why this reduction is larger in bad times." 
 summary: "This paper explains why a wave of in-migration reduces the employment rate of local workers, and why this reduction is larger in bad times. Yet, when the labor market is inefficiently tight, in-migration improves local welfare because it aids  firms in recruiting."
@@ -52,8 +53,8 @@ number = {arXiv:2303.13319v4},
 url = {https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2303.13319}}
 ```
 
-<!-- ---
+---
 
 ##### Related material
 
-+ [Presentation slides](/14p.pdf) -->
++ [Presentation slides](/14p.pdf)

content/papers/15.md

@@ -1,15 +1,15 @@
 ---
-title: "Moen Meets Rotemberg: An Earthly Model of the Divine Coincidence" 
-date: 2024-01-20
-lastmod: 2024-08-25
+title: "Beveridgean Phillips Curve" 
+date: 2024-10-25
+# lastmod: 2024-08-25
 url: /15/
-tags: ["Beveridge curve", "directed search", "divine coincidence", "inflation", "kinked Phillips curve", "matching model", "Phillips curve", "price rigidity", "unemployment gap", "wealth in the utility"]
+tags: ["Beveridge curve", "business cycles", "directed search", "divine coincidence", "economic slack", "inflation", "kinked Phillips curve", "matching model", "monetary policy", "Phillips curve", "price rigidity", "tightness gap", "unemployment gap", "wealth in the utility"]
 author: ["Pascal Michaillat","Emmanuel Saez"]
 description: "This paper develops a simple business-cycle model with divine coincidence: inflation is on target when unemployment is efficient." 
 summary: "This paper develops a simple business-cycle model with divine coincidence: inflation is on target when unemployment is efficient. The divine coincidence arises from directed search under a quadratic price-adjustment cost." 
 cover:
     image: "/15s.png"
-    alt: "Divine coincidence in the United States"
+    alt: "Phillips curve in the United States"
     relative: false
 editPost:
     URL: "https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2401.12475"
@@ -25,35 +25,39 @@ editPost:
 
 ##### Abstract
 
-This paper proposes a model of the divine coincidence, explaining its recent appearance in US data. The divine coincidence matters because it helps explain the behavior of inflation after the pandemic, and it guarantees that the full-employment and price-stability mandates of the Federal Reserve coincide. In the model, a Phillips curve relating unemployment to inflation arises from Moen's (1997) directed search. The Phillips curve is nonvertical thanks to Rotemberg's (1982) price-adjustment costs. The model's Phillips curve guarantees that the rate of inflation is on target whenever the rate of unemployment is efficient, generating the divine coincidence. If we assume that wage decreases—which reduce workers' morale—are more costly to producers than price increases—which upset customers—the Phillips curve also displays a kink at the point of divine coincidence.
+This paper proposes a new, Beveridgean model of the Phillips curve. While the New Keynesian Phillips Curve is based on monopolistic pricing under price-adjustment costs, the Beveridgean Phillips curve is based on directed-search pricing under price-adjustment costs. Under directed-search pricing, prices respond to slack instead of marginal costs. The Beveridgean Phillips curve links the inflation gap to the unemployment gap, with the following properties. First, it produces the divine coincidence: it guarantees that the rate of inflation is on target whenever the rate of unemployment is efficient. Second, whenever the Beveridge curve shifts, the Phillips curve shifts if it is formulated with inflation and unemployment, but it remains unaffected if it is formulated with inflation and labor-market tightness. Third, the Phillips curve displays a kink at the point of divine coincidence if we assume that wage decreases—which reduce workers' morale—are more costly to producers than price increases—which upset customers. These three properties describe recent US data well.
 
 ---
 
-##### Figure 1A:  Divine coincidence in aggregate US data, 2008–2022 (Benigno, Eggertsson 2023)
+##### Figure 1:  Phillips curve in the United States, 2020–2024
 
 ![](/15a.png)
 
-##### Figure 1B:  Divine coincidence in metropolitan US data, 2001–2022 (Gitti 2023)
+##### Figure 9A:  Response to a negative aggregate-demand shock with a kinked Phillips curve
 
 ![](/15b.png)
 
+##### Figure 9B:  Response to a negative aggregate-supply shock with a kinked Phillips curve
+
+![](/15c.png)
+
 ---
 
 ##### Citation
 
-Michaillat, Pascal, and Emmanuel Saez. 2024. "Moen Meets Rotemberg: An Earthly Model of the Divine Coincidence." arXiv:2401.12475v1. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2401.12475.
+Michaillat, Pascal, and Emmanuel Saez. 2024. "Beveridgean Phillips Curve." arXiv:2401.12475v2. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2401.12475.
 
 ```BibTeX
 @techreport{MS24,
 author = {Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez},
 year = {2024},
-title = {Moen Meets Rotemberg: An Earthly Model of the Divine Coincidence},
-number = {arXiv:2401.12475v1},
+title = {Beveridgean Phillips Curve},
+number = {arXiv:2401.12475v2},
 url = {https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2401.12475}}
 ```
 
----
+<!-- ---
 
 ##### Related material
 
-+ [Presentation slides](/15p.pdf)
++ [Presentation slides](/15p.pdf) -->

content/papers/8.md

@@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ aliases:
     - /tags/fairness/
     - /tags/cost-passthrough/
     - /tags/markups/
-tags: ["corporate greed", "fair markups", "fair prices", "inflation", "inflation aversion", "monopoly pricing", "misinference", "New Keynesian model", "Phillips curve", "price rigidity"]
+tags: ["corporate greed", "fair markups", "fair prices", "inflation", "inflation aversion", "monetary policy", "monopoly pricing", "misinference", "New Keynesian model", "Phillips curve", "price rigidity"]
 author: ["Erik Eyster","Kristof Madarasz","Pascal Michaillat"]
 description: "To explain price rigidity, this paper develops a model in which buyers care about the fairness of markups but cannot observe them. Published in JEEA, 2021." 
 summary: "This paper develops a model of pricing in which buyers care about the fairness of markups but misinfer them from prices. The model yields price rigidity, generates realistic Phillips curves, and explains why people dislike inflation so much."