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ramiyaari authored Jan 18, 2024
2 parents 05aff0a + 10d495e commit c26c6cb
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5,195 changes: 5,195 additions & 0 deletions auxiliary-data/target-data-archive/target-hospital-admissions_2023-12-23.csv
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5,248 changes: 5,248 additions & 0 deletions auxiliary-data/target-data-archive/target-hospital-admissions_2023-12-30.csv
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5,301 changes: 5,301 additions & 0 deletions auxiliary-data/target-data-archive/target-hospital-admissions_2024-01-06.csv
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5,354 changes: 5,354 additions & 0 deletions auxiliary-data/target-data-archive/target-hospital-admissions_2024-01-13.csv
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21 changes: 21 additions & 0 deletions model-metadata/FluSight-equal_cat.yml
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team_name: "FluSight-equal_cat"
team_abbr: "FluSight"
model_name: "Baseline model with equal probabilities for each rate-trend category"
model_abbr: "equal_cat"
model_version: "1.0"
model_contributors: [
{
"name": "Rebecca Borchering",
"affiliation": "CDC",
"email": "xhq2@cdc.gov"
}
]
website_url: "https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub"
license: "CC-BY-4.0"
designated_model: false
methods: "Simple baseline model predicting that the probability for each rate-trend category will equal 0.2 for all jurisdictions and horizons."
data_inputs: "None"
methods_long: "Simple baseline model predicting that the probability for each rate-trend category will be equal. Since there are five categories, for each jurisdiction and rate-difference horizon each category recieves a probability of 0.2 of occurring."

ensemble_of_models: false
ensemble_of_hub_models: false
48 changes: 48 additions & 0 deletions model-metadata/JHU_CSSE-CSSE_Ensemble.yml
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team_name: "The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University"
team_abbr: "JHU_CSSE"
model_name: "CSSE Ensemble"
model_abbr: "CSSE_Ensemble"
model_contributors: [
{
"name": "Lauren Gardner",
"affiliation": "Johns Hopkins University",
"email": "l.gardner@jhu.edu"
},
{
"name": "Hongru Du",
"affiliation": "Johns Hopkins University",
"email": "hdu9@jh.edu"
},
{
"name": "Hao Frank Yang",
"affiliation": "Johns Hopkins University",
"email": "haofrankyang@jhu.edu"
},
{
"name": "Shaochong Xu",
"affiliation": "Johns Hopkins University",
"email": "sxu75@jh.edu"
},
{
"name": "Xianglong Wang",
"affiliation": "Johns Hopkins University",
"email": "xwang344@jh.edu"
},
{
"name": "Yang Zhao",
"affiliation": "Peking University",
"email": "zy_@pku.edu.cn"
},
{
"name": "Pu Wang",
"affiliation": "New York University",
"email": "pw2425@nyu.edu"
}
]
license: "CC-BY-4.0"
designated_model: true
data_inputs: "Weekly flu hospitalizations, Weekly weather for each states, Google search volume for flu-related symptoms, Change healthcare claims data (accessed via covidcast)"
methods: "Ensemble of time series models including exponential smoothing, LSTM and GRU"
methods_long: "This model predicts state-level influenza hospitalizations through an ensemble of time series forecasting methods at three hierarchical levels: individual state-level forecasts using exponential smoothing, Health and Human Services (HHS) region-level predictions with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, and a single Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model that encompasses all states. These three-level models are combined to yield the final ensemble prediction."
ensemble_of_models: true
ensemble_of_hub_models: false
3 changes: 2 additions & 1 deletion model-metadata/LUcompUncertLab-chimera.yml
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Expand Up @@ -27,6 +27,7 @@ Still cranky about how sensitive this model is to changes. This round ill try to
2023-11-08:Added in priors for peak intensity and timing, and for the first two weeks of the season (MMWR 40 and 41). This adds stability to the model and speed.
2023-11-23:Found two major bugs in the code. One is frustrating and the other very subtle. First bug was training on hospitalization data the same as last year. i missed the message about a change in the hosp data and so have been training my model on the wrong data up until now. The second bug is a subtle fix in the code that took some time to find.
2023-12-09: Added back QO data, truncated to be two weeks before the forecast submission date. Forecasts look ok except for FIP=72. i'll need to investigate.
2023-12-16: Ran versions without and without the QO data. For the majority of locations i chose the model that included QO data. There were 3 locations, 30,37,56 where i thought the model without QO data was better and so chose those forecasts instead."
2023-12-16: Ran versions without and without the QO data. For the majority of locations i chose the model that included QO data. There were 3 locations, 30,37,56 where i thought the model without QO data was better and so chose those forecasts instead.
2023-12-30: Not much to report. Still running a few slightly different versions of the model and then hand picking which model to submit for which location."
ensemble_of_models: false
ensemble_of_hub_models: false
9 changes: 8 additions & 1 deletion model-metadata/cfarenewal-cfaepimlight.yml
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Expand Up @@ -8,8 +8,15 @@ model_contributors: [
"name": "Catherine M. Herzog",
"affiliation": "CFA/CDC",
"email": "uvw5@cdc.gov"
}
},

{
"name": "Dylan H. Morris",
"affiliation": "CFA/CDC",
"email": "dylan@dylanhmorris.com"
}
]

license: "CC-BY-4.0"
designated_model: true
methods: "Simple renewal model fit to daily incidence data using the Epidemia package"
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93 changes: 93 additions & 0 deletions model-output/CADPH-FluCAT_Ensemble/2023-12-30-CADPH-FluCAT_Ensemble.csv
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"reference_date","target","horizon","target_end_date","location","output_type","output_type_id","value"
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.01,2098.82707709196
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.025,2129.58141381347
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.05,2156.19295949728
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.1,2187.65553147378
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.15,2208.17531398005
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2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.3,2252.17698217081
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2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.45,2286.33304208368
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2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.6,2318.94061217722
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.65,2329.95842355034
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.7,2341.69715171085
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.75,2354.57653017898
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.8,2368.8885700774
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.85,2385.34918543645
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.9,2406.35101195929
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.95,2436.58760920167
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2023-12-30,"06","quantile",0.975,2463.25695497092
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2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",1,2024-01-06,"06","quantile",0.01,2303.71283056768
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2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",1,2024-01-06,"06","quantile",0.2,2592.27025725245
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2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",1,2024-01-06,"06","quantile",0.85,2957.30862203078
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",1,2024-01-06,"06","quantile",0.9,3005.12797686258
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2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",1,2024-01-06,"06","quantile",0.99,3207.42521802236
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.01,2399.22934680265
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.025,2518.18343730631
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2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.15,2817.61599821633
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.2,2880.90725079979
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.25,2935.04469377326
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.3,2983.6402392683
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.35,3028.71784444711
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.4,3071.63427688202
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.45,3113.13941573695
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.5,3153.71508075486
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.55,3194.59418978457
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.6,3235.91745796076
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.65,3278.76945435622
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.7,3323.77354983063
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.75,3372.38145704134
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2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.85,3489.61431818936
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.9,3569.30343783647
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.95,3687.52858306902
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.975,3789.5432516244
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-13,"06","quantile",0.99,3908.31475466347
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.01,2441.33971539469
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.025,2614.84589850569
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.05,2764.06080405274
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2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.15,3051.43862886708
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.2,3143.38807380251
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.25,3222.22905105359
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.3,3293.03617838952
2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.35,3358.71766288902
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2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.9,4145.76836117354
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2023-12-30,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.99,4639.02337590598
93 changes: 93 additions & 0 deletions model-output/CADPH-FluCAT_Ensemble/2024-01-06-CADPH-FluCAT_Ensemble.csv
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"reference_date","target","horizon","target_end_date","location","output_type","output_type_id","value"
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2024-01-06,"06","quantile",0.01,1444.42744763809
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2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2024-01-06,"06","quantile",0.2,1616.25489709941
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2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2024-01-06,"06","quantile",0.3,1653.20085594832
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",0,2024-01-06,"06","quantile",0.35,1669.25355020344
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2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.6,1676.07531659338
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.65,1738.00942075599
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.7,1802.93936880607
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.75,1873.11740768329
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.8,1951.3491379873
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.85,2042.45545269771
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.9,2157.38843576895
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.95,2328.14412546317
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.975,2475.29643825695
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",2,2024-01-20,"06","quantile",0.99,2647.13808904103
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.01,0
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.025,128.196771388396
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.05,345.900814378535
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.1,596.020691637732
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.15,765.280023282012
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.2,899.530374880985
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.25,1014.58734875502
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.3,1117.91584951308
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.35,1213.74710873921
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.4,1304.74247555053
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.45,1392.83947355065
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.5,1479.52515341245
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.55,1566.09715328841
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.6,1653.91143106486
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.65,1744.69591125881
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.7,1840.50335216626
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.75,1943.80954577394
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.8,2058.84367708158
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.85,2193.1918294732
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.9,2362.32757161284
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.95,2612.55595730733
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.975,2829.9131890179
2024-01-06,"wk inc flu hosp",3,2024-01-27,"06","quantile",0.99,3082.07320014723
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