diff --git a/vignettes/ubms.Rmd b/vignettes/ubms.Rmd index 04e4b87..0a17d12 100644 --- a/vignettes/ubms.Rmd +++ b/vignettes/ubms.Rmd @@ -298,8 +298,7 @@ fit_top ### MCMC diagnostics -Again looking at the summary of `fit_top`, it appears all chains have adequately converged based on $\hat{R}$ values. -Ideally, you want all $\hat{R} > 1.05$. +Again looking at the summary of `fit_top`, we conclude MCMC chains have converged if all $\hat{R} > 1.05$. To visualize convergence, look at the traceplots: ```{r} @@ -339,7 +338,8 @@ The proportion of draws for which the simulated statistic is larger than the act plot(fit_top_gof) ``` -Our model appears to have adequate fit based on this posterior predictive check. +Our model does not appear to fit well based on this posterior predictive check. +The first step to addressing this would be to run the model for more iterations to make sure that isn't the reason. You can use the `posterior_predict` function to simulate new datasets, which you can use to calculate your own fit statistic. The following command generates 100 simulated datasets.