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@article{Patra2018,
author = {Abani Patra and Andrea Bevilacqua and Ali Akhavan-Safaei and E.Bruce Pitman and Marcus Bursik and David Hyman},
journal = {arXiv.org},
pages = {1-39},
volume = {1805.12104},
title = {{Comparative analysis of the structures and outcomes of geophysical flow models and modeling assumptions using uncertainty quantification}},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Pirulli2007,
title = "The effect of the earth pressure coefficients on the runout of granular material",
journal = "Environmental Modelling \& Software",
volume = "22",
number = "10",
pages = "1437 - 1454",
year = "2007",
note = "Modelling, computer-assisted simulations, and mapping of dangerous phenomena for hazard assessment",
issn = "1364-8152",
doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2006.06.006",
url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815206001575",
author = "Marina Pirulli and Marie-Odile Bristeau and Anne Mangeney and Claudio Scavia",
keywords = "Rock avalanche, Numerical analysis, Earth pressure coefficients, Granular material, Back analysis"
}
@inproceedings{Simakov2019,
title={Modernizing Titan2D, a Parallel AMR Geophysical Flow Code to Support Multiple Rheologies and Extendability},
author={Simakov, Nikolay A and Jones-Ivey, Renette L and Akhavan-Safaei, Ali and Aghakhani, Hossein and Jones, Matthew D and Patra, Abani K},
booktitle={International Conference on High Performance Computing},
pages={101--112},
year={2019},
organization={Springer}
}
@article{Gray1999,
author = {Gray, J. M. N. T. and Wieland, M. and Hutter, K. },
title = {Gravity-driven free surface flow of granular avalanches over complex basal topography},
journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
volume = {455},
number = {1985},
pages = {1841-1874},
year = {1999},
doi = {10.1098/rspa.1999.0383},
URL = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rspa.1999.0383},
eprint = {https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspa.1999.0383}
}
@article{Sandri2018,
author = {Sandri, Laura and Tierz, Pablo and Costa, Antonio and Marzocchi, Warner},
title = {Probabilistic Hazard From Pyroclastic Density Currents in the Neapolitan Area (Southern Italy)},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth},
volume = {123},
number = {5},
pages = {3474-3500},
keywords = {pyroclastic density currents, probabilistic hazard, Campi Flegrei, Somma-Vesuvius, Napoli, ensemble},
doi = {10.1002/2017JB014890},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017JB014890},
eprint = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2017JB014890},
year = {2018}
}
@article{Tierz2018,
author = {Tierz, P. and Stefanescu, E. R. and Sandri, L. and Sulpizio, R. and Valentine, G. A. and Marzocchi, W. and Patra, A. K.},
title = {Towards Quantitative Volcanic Risk of Pyroclastic Density Currents: Probabilistic Hazard Curves and Maps Around Somma-Vesuvius (Italy)},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth},
volume = {123},
number = {8},
pages = {6299-6317},
doi = {10.1029/2017JB015383},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2017JB015383},
eprint = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2017JB015383},
year = {2018}
}
@InProceedings{Patra2018b,
author="Abani Patra and Andrea Bevilacqua and Ali Akhavan-Safaei",
editor="Shi, Yong
and Fu, Haohuan
and Tian, Yingjie
and Krzhizhanovskaya, Valeria V.
and Lees, Michael Harold
and Dongarra, Jack
and Sloot, Peter M. A.",
title="Analyzing Complex Models Using Data and Statistics",
booktitle="Computational Science -- ICCS 2018",
year="2018",
publisher="Springer International Publishing",
address="Cham",
pages="724--736",
abstract="Complex systems (e.g., volcanoes, debris flows, climate) commonly have many models advocated by different modelers and incorporating different modeling assumptions. Limited and sparse data on the modeled phenomena does not permit a clean discrimination among models for fitness of purpose, and, heuristic choices are usually made, especially for critical predictions of behavior that has not been experienced. We advocate here for characterizing models and the modeling assumptions they represent using a statistical approach over the full range of applicability of the models. Such a characterization may then be used to decide the appropriateness of a model for use, and, perhaps as needed weighted compositions of models for better predictive power. We use the example of dense granular representations of natural mass flows in volcanic debris avalanches, to illustrate our approach.",
isbn="978-3-319-93701-4"
}
@article{Rutarindwa2019,
author = {Rutarindwa, Regis and Spiller, Elaine T. and Bevilacqua, Andrea and Bursik, Marcus I. and Patra, Abani K.},
title = {Dynamic Probabilistic Hazard Mapping in the Long Valley Volcanic Region CA: Integrating Vent Opening Maps and Statistical Surrogates of Physical Models of Pyroclastic Density Currents},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth},
volume = {124},
number = {9},
pages = {9600-9621},
keywords = {pyroclastic density currents, hazard forecasting, uncertainty quantification},
doi = {10.1029/2019JB017352},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JB017352},
eprint = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2019JB017352},
abstract = {Abstract Ideally, probabilistic hazard assessments combine available knowledge about physical mechanisms of the hazard, data on past hazards, and any precursor information. Systematically assessing the probability of rare, yet catastrophic hazards adds a layer of difficulty due to limited observation data. Via computer models, one can exercise potentially dangerous scenarios that may not have happened in the past but are probabilistically consistent with the aleatoric nature of previous volcanic behavior in the record. Traditional Monte Carlo-based methods to calculate such hazard probabilities suffer from two issues: they are computationally expensive, and they are static. In light of new information, newly available data, signs of unrest, and new probabilistic analysis describing uncertainty about scenarios the Monte Carlo calculation would need to be redone under the same computational constraints. Here we present an alternative approach utilizing statistical emulators that provide an efficient way to overcome the computational bottleneck of typical Monte Carlo approaches. Moreover, this approach is independent of an aleatoric scenario model and yet can be applied rapidly to any scenario model making it dynamic. We present and apply this emulator-based approach to create multiple probabilistic hazard maps for inundation of pyroclastic density currents in the Long Valley Volcanic Region. Further, we illustrate how this approach enables an exploration of the impact of epistemic uncertainties on these probabilistic hazard forecasts. Particularly, we focus on the uncertainty of vent opening models and how that uncertainty both aleatoric and epistemic impacts the resulting probabilistic hazard maps of pyroclastic density current inundation.},
year = {2019}
}
@article{Hyman2019,
AUTHOR = {Hyman, D. M. and Bevilacqua, A. and Bursik, M. I.},
TITLE = {Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location},
JOURNAL = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
VOLUME = {19},
YEAR = {2019},
NUMBER = {7},
PAGES = {1347--1363},
URL = {https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/1347/2019/},
DOI = {10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019}
}
@article{dMichieliVitturi2019,
AUTHOR = {de' Michieli Vitturi, M. and Esposti Ongaro, T. and Lari, G. and Aravena, A.},
TITLE = {IMEX\_SfloW2D 1.0: a depth-averaged numerical flow model for pyroclastic avalanches},
JOURNAL = {Geoscientific Model Development},
VOLUME = {12},
YEAR = {2019},
NUMBER = {1},
PAGES = {581--595},
URL = {https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/581/2019/},
DOI = {10.5194/gmd-12-581-2019}
}
@article{Bevilacqua2019,
AUTHOR = {Bevilacqua, A. and Patra, A. K. and Bursik, M. I. and Pitman, E. B. and Mac\'{\i}as, J. L. and Saucedo, R. and Hyman, D.},
TITLE = {Probabilistic forecasting of plausible debris flows from Nevado de Colima (Mexico) using data from the Atenquique debris flow, 1955},
JOURNAL = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences},
VOLUME = {19},
YEAR = {2019},
NUMBER = {4},
PAGES = {791--820},
URL = {https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/19/791/2019/},
DOI = {10.5194/nhess-19-791-2019}
}
@book{Popper1959,
year = {1959},
publisher = {Routledge},
author = {Karl R. Popper},
title = {The Logic of Scientific Discovery},
doi = {10.2307/2104331}
}
@article{Charbonnier2012,
title = "Evaluation of geophysical mass flow models using the 2006 block-and-ash flows of Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia: Towards a short-term hazard assessment tool",
journal = "Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research",
volume = "231-232",
pages = "87 - 108",
year = "2012",
issn = "0377-0273",
doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2012.02.015",
url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377027312000522",
author = "S.J. Charbonnier and R. Gertisser",
keywords = "Merapi volcano, Numerical modeling, Block-and-ash flows, Inundation map, Hazard assessment, Titan2D, VolcFlow"
}
@article{Tierz2016,
author="Tierz, Pablo
and Sandri, Laura
and Costa, Antonio
and Zaccarelli, Lucia
and Di Vito, Mauro Antonio
and Sulpizio, Roberto
and Marzocchi, Warner",
title={{Suitability of energy cone for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment: validation tests at Somma-Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy)}},
journal="Bulletin of Volcanology",
year="2016",
volume="78",
number="11",
pages="79"
}
@article{Macias2008,
title = {{Hazard map of El Chich\'on volcano, Chiapas, M\'exico: Constraints posed by eruptive history and computer simulations}},
journal = "Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research",
volume = "175",
number = "4",
pages = "444 - 458",
year = "2008",
issn = "0377-0273",
doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.02.023",
url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377027308001650",
author = "J.L. Mac\'ias and L. Capra and J.L. Arce and J.M. Esp\'indola and A. Garc\'ia-Palomo and M.F. Sheridan"
}
@article{Bongard2007,
author = {Bongard, J. and Lipson, H.},
title = {{Automated reverse engineering of nonlinear dynamical systems}},
volume = {104},
number = {24},
pages = {9943--9948},
year = {2007},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0609476104},
publisher = {National Academy of Sciences},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}
}
@article{Aghakhani2016,
author = {Hossein Aghakhani and Keith Dalbey and David Salac and Abani K. Patra},
issn = {0045-7825},
doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2016.02.021},
journal = {Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering},
number = {},
pages = {243--264},
title = {{Heuristic and Eulerian interface capturing approaches for shallow water type flow and application to granular flows}},
volume = {304},
year = {2016}
}
@article{Bartelt1999,
author = {Bartelt, P. and Salm, B. and Gruber, U.},
journal = {Journal of Glaciology},
number = {150},
pages = {242-254},
title = {{Calculating dense-snow avalanche runout using a Voellmy-fluid model with active/passive longitudinal straining}},
volume = {45},
year = {1999}
}
@article{BarteltMcArdell2009,
author = {Bartelt, P. and McArdell, B.},
doi = {},
journal = {Journal of Glaciology},
number = {193},
pages = {829-833(5)},
title = {{Granulometric investigations of snow avalanches}},
volume = {55},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Bayarri2009,
author = {Bayarri, M. J. and Berger, James O. and Calder, Eliza S. and Dalbey, Keith and Lunagomez, Simon and Patra, Abani K. and Pitman, E. Bruce and Spiller, Elaine T. and Wolpert, Robert L.},
doi = {10.1198/TECH.2009.08018},
issn = {0040-1706},
journal = {Technometrics},
keywords = {and phrases,bayesian analysis,catastrophic events,emulators,ex-,inverse problems,treme events},
month = nov,
number = {4},
pages = {402--413},
title = {{Using Statistical and Computer Models to Quantify Volcanic Hazards}},
url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/TECH.2009.08018},
volume = {51},
year = {2009}
}
@article{Bayarri2015,
author = {Bayarri, M. J. and Berger, J. O. and Calder, E. S. and Patra, A. K. and Pitman, E. B. and Spiller, E. T. and Wolpert, R. L.},
doi = {},
journal = {International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification},
number = {4},
pages = {297--325},
title = {{Probabilistic Quantification of Hazards: A Methodology Using Small Ensembles of Physics-Based Simulations and Statistical Surrogates}},
volume = {5},
year = {2015}
}
@article{Bursik2005,
author={M. Bursik and A.K. Patra and E.B. Pitman and C. Nichita and J.L. Macias and R. Saucedo and O. Girina},
title={{Advances in studies of dense volcanic granular flows}},
journal={Reports on Progress in Physics},
volume={68},
number={2},
pages={271},
url={http://stacks.iop.org/0034-4885/68/i=2/a=R01},
year={2005}
}
@article{Capra2011,
author="Capra, L. and Manea, V. C. and Manea, M. and Norini, G.",
title={{The importance of digital elevation model resolution on granular flow simulations: a test case for Colima volcano using TITAN2D computational routine}},
journal="Natural Hazards",
year="2011",
month="Nov",
day="01",
volume="59",
number="2",
pages="665--680",
issn="1573-0840",
doi="10.1007/s11069-011-9788-6",
url="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-011-9788-6"
}
@article{Capra2015,
author="Capra, L. and Gavilanes-Ruiz, J. C. and Bonasia, R. and Saucedo-Giron, R. and Sulpizio, R.",
title={{Re-assessing volcanic hazard zonation of Volc{\'a}n de Colima, M{\'e}xico}},
journal="Natural Hazards",
year="2015",
month="Mar",
day="01",
volume="76",
number="1",
pages="41--61",
issn="1573-0840",
doi="10.1007/s11069-014-1480-1",
url="https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1480-1"
}
@article{Capra2016,
title = {{Preliminary report on the July 10--11, 2015 eruption at Volc{\'a}n de Colima: Pyroclastic density currents with exceptional runouts and volume}},
journal = "Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research",
volume = "310",
number = "Supplement C",
pages = "39 - 49",
year = "2016",
issn = "0377-0273",
doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.11.022",
url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377027315004047",
author = "L. Capra and J.L. Mac{\'i}s and A. Cort{\'e}s and N. D{\'a}vila and R. Saucedo and S. Osorio-Ocampo and J.L. Arce and J.C. Gavilanes-Ruiz and P. Corona-Ch{\'a}vez and L. Garc{\'i}a-S{\'a}nchez and G. Sosa-Ceballos and R. V{\'a}zquez",
keywords = "Volcan de Colima, Pyroclastic density current, Dome collapse"
}
@article{Charbonnier2009,
author="Charbonnier, S. J.
and Gertisser, R.",
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doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2016.04.015",
url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377027316300464",
author = "Gabriel A. Reyes-D{\'a}vila and Ra{\'u}l Ar{\'a}mbula-Mendoza and Ram{\'o}n Espinasa-Perena and Matthew J. Pankhurst and Carlos Navarro-Ochoa and Ivan Savov and Dulce M. Vargas-Bracamontes and Abel Cort{\'e}s-Cort{\'e}s and Carlos Guti{\'e}rrez-Mart{\'i}nez and Carlos Vald{\'e}s-Gonz{\'a}lez and Tonatiuh Dom{\'i}nguez-Reyes and Miguel Gonz{\'a}lez-Amezcua and Alejandro Mart{\'i}nez-Fierros and Carlos Ariel Ram{\'i}rez-V{\'a}zquez and Lucio C{\'a}rdenas-Gonz{\'a}lez and Elizabeth Castaneda-Bastida and Diana M. V{\'a}zquez Espinoza de los Monteros and Amiel Nieto-Torres and Robin Campion and Loic Courtois and Peter D. Lee",
keywords = "Monitoring, Volc{\'a}n de Colima, Petrology, Lava dome collapse, Boiling-over, Pyroclastic density currents"
}
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