Error bars

[lubo93]

Hi, thanks a lot for the great work you're doing. Would it be possible to add error bars in your .csv files? The CDC included an Upper Bound Threshold in their files and it would be quite helpful if you could do the same in your analysis.

The CDC error bars are based on 95% confidence intervals (see https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). Using Gaussian error statistics, one can obtain Upper Bound Threshold via Upper Bound Threshold = Average Expected Count + 1.96*Standard Deviation.

Thanks!

[lubo93]

Maybe one could just use mutate(expected_deaths = predict(expected_deaths_model,.,interval = "confidence") in the get_excess_deaths function. The default confidence interval is the 95% CI.

[sondreus]

Hi, sorry for the late reply. This is an interesting suggestion. Would happily have a look at a pull request with this suggested change. Thanks!